Juárez in flames: origins of a rupture and destabilization as opportunity
August 11, 2022, Ciudad Juárez, Chih. — A city of 1.5 million is taken hostage and goes up in flames. Convenience stores are attacked. Civilians are gunned down. Police scramble across the city, sirens blaring.
It was widely reported the chain of events was set off by a infighting between rival groups inside the state prison, CERESO 3. The more exact origin of the violence that day suggest a point of rupture between Municipal Police and organized crime. An intelligence source confirmed: the violence was unleashed as RETALIATION to the intervention of the Municipal Police inside the prison. The event was then instrumentalized to sow terror and advance a political agenda.
I consulted with a colleague who is former military, former State Police and ex-Municipal Police, about the attacks in Ciudad Juárez to get his perspective on the situation. This is a chronology of the events, complemented by intelligence and military sources.
Thursday, 13:27 hours: During visiting hours, Los Mexicles gang members, escorted by armed prison guards on their payroll, enter the prison area reserved for Los Chapitos faction. They disarm and overpower other guards and begin beating prisoners, ultimately killing two.
There is panic among family members of prisoners hoping to see their loved ones that day. Gunshots are heard from outside and a group of persons tear down a fence in attempt to enter the prison.
Approx. ~14 hours: First units arrive. Reportedly, Municipal Police are alerted to the situation directly from the inside and are first on the scene, followed by State Police, National Guard and Army. Even though the CERESO is under jurisdiction and operation of the State Government, municipal riot police are first to enter the prison, led personally by none other than the controversial Secretary of the Municipal Police, César Omar Muñoz Morales.
As my military colleague explained, Los Mexicles succeeded in their objective: temporarily taking over the prison while killing and beating rival gang members from Los Chapitos. There was no need to set the streets on fire.
Why did they do it? Rupture. La Línea and its allies (including the anti-Sinaloa-aligned faction of the Mexicles) have been in line with the police for a while.
~15 hours: Authorities take back control of the prison. What happened inside specifically is anyone’s guess but the brutality of the repression, personally commanded by the police chief, against Los Mexicles outrages the leadership. After all, both are supposed to be on the same side of the “Triple Alliance.” Calls are made and the gang mobilizes throughout the city.
16:10 hours: The first commercial establishment is attacked. Four armed men throw a molotov cocktail at an Oxxo convenience store. Two women die from their injuries: an 18 year-old pregnant woman leaving her job application and a 50 year-old worker.
My ex-military/police colleague observes: police units are concentrated for deployment, then they’re deployed IN BULK to incidence points around the city, reactively. Zero coordination between Municipal Police and counterparts in State Police, National Guard and Army.
He highlights: no preventive checkpoints or strategic distribution around the city. RED FLAG. Ineptitude or malice? I ask him. He thinks about it… Both.
The current police chief and federal forces cut all ties a long time ago, he says. Even State Police are reticent to deal with the “municipales.” The chief is a thug. Boorish and old-school, he explains: Army and National Guard are absolutely disgusted by him.
16:30–18:00 hours: Four convenience stores, two gas stations attacked. Multiple injured and dead, including a 15-year old. My friend and I coincide: the attacks against commercial establishments are to sow fear. To send a POLITICAL message. This is ATYPICAL from these organizations, unless they receive directives from higher up, the economic and/or political elite.
~18:00 hours: Attack against another vehicle in a major avenue paralyzes traffic and causes panic. This is the second similar attack this day on an important transit point. Convenience stores close. Universities announce suspension of classes.
What provoked taking hostage and terrorizing a city of 1.5 million? Politics. Premeditation or a window-of-opportunity situation… still up in the air. But it all aligned to allow for an attempt at destabilization, to further an agenda in the works:
17:35 hours: Four radio workers broadcasting from outside a pizza place are gunned down. News outlets have been reporting minute by minute, instigating a social media frenzy: the narrative of narcoterrorism begins to emerge. Fear and awe. Incessant police chatter.
Police units flock to every point of violence, unnecessarily. National Guard and Army follow, and remain stationed while bodies, bullets and evidence are compiled by authorities. The city burns while the authorities stand by and react.
Could deployment of armed civilian units be contained or were authorities at their mercy? Coordination and political willingness could have given authorities the strategic initiative. The Mayor reacts to the dynamics he inherited and replicated. The Governor was caught off guard.
20:50 hours: The organized oligarchy publish a press release condemning the violence. They deploy a media strategy the next two days calling for a change in security strategy and advancing the narcoterrorism narrative. A political agenda is clear.
The Governor won’t make a public statement until 22:30 hrs on Facebook. Lukewarm and generic. The Mayor follows at 23:28, again on Facebook. Sentimental and praising the Municipal Police chief by name.
During the late evening, social media accounts tied to the Municipal Government begin to post praising the Municipal Police, especially its director. Still in shock and looking for a narrative/hero, netizens replicate the praise.
01 hours: The police chief again personally leads an operation against presumed delinquents involved in the attacks. A gun battle ensues where armed civilians attempt to kill him. Six are arrested. The next morning, the sum of detained persons is 10. The operation is downplayed, for whatever reason. TV Azteca news station is one of the few to pick it up. Again, evidence of rupture. He’s playing with fire.
Friday: Small media outlets and local Facebook pages reproduce positive mentions of the Municipal Police corps and its chief.
The events in Juárez mark another incident in the chain of violent attacks in the rest of the country targeting not only authorities but businesses and the civilian population. All within days of each other. Fires, gunshots and roadblocks occur in Guanajuato, Jalisco, Baja California, Chihuahua and Michoacán.
The media and the political opposition to President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, particularly the economic elites, advance the narrative of “narcoterrorism” and “failed state.” They urge for a drastic change in security policy.
The synchronicity of these events certainly calls for our attention. But the concerted mediatic-political push to force the Federal Government into a corner to change its security policy, possibly inviting greater intervention from the United States, should set off alarms.
It is still unclear how, or even if, these events are related, but the response certainly is. Knowing the origins of the violence in Juárez on August 11th, we should now ask, who benefits? Whose opportunity was it to exploit? What emerged from the attacks? Is it emergence? Or emergency?
